2009 FANTASY BASEBALL REVIEW
By: Michael A. Stein
October 4, 2009
The 2009 fantasy baseball season is over. Here is my breakdown and analysis of studs, stinkers, and 2010 sleepers at each offensive position.
FIRST BASE
Stud
Albert Pujols – I know I am really going out on a limb to praise King Albert and all of his greatness, but never more has praise been so deserved. Pujols had arguably the greatest season of his career, which is pretty remarkable considering his body of work since he entered the league in 2001. Before the season started, there were questions of who would protect him in the St. Louis lineup. The general consensus was that Pujols would be intentionally walked repeatedly because Ryan Ludwick did not strike fear into the hearts of pitchers. However, it didn’t matter whether Ludwick, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus or Vince Coleman was hitting behind Pujols. He still racked up 47 HR’s and 135 RBI. Oh, and he also hit .327, scored 124 runs, walked 115 times and ONLY struck out 64 times. At 29 years old, he is in his prime. However, I would argue that he has been in his prime since he was 21 years old. Please, please don’t reveal that Pujols has tested positive for any performance-enhancing drugs. He is by far the best player in the game, in both reality and fantasy. No question he is the #1 overall pick in any league next year. And I would go as far to say that he is the greatest pure hitter of all time, regardless of era, time period, drugs, size of stadiums, height of the mound, etc. I challenge anyone to find a player with better, more consistent offensive statistics over a 9 year period. Oh yeah, he also stole 16 bases this year and has become a Gold Glove first-baseman.
Stinker
Lance Berkman – Despite having several injuries and a depleted lineup around him, Berkman had a disappointing 2009 campaign. So did his entire team, which led to the recent firing of Houston’s manager Cecil Cooper. Berkman is a perennial .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI player. He did not achieve any of those statistics, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners who drafted him as a key cog to their respective teams. At his advanced baseball age with a slew of nagging injuries, Berkman can no longer be considered an elite option at 1B. That is not to say he isn’t capable of bouncing back next year in the friendly confines of Enron Field…errr, Minute Maid Park. But, buyer beware in 2010.
Sleeper
Joey Votto - So what is your definition of a sleeper? It is probably different than mine. That is why I am choosing Joey Votto for this category. I know, 2010 will be his 3rd year in the majors. I know, he has had 2 quite successful campaigns in both 2008 and 2009. I know, he was considered a rising star coming into this season. But, he lost significant time due to vertigo and mental issues. As a result, Votto was limited to only 131 games and 469 at bats. Look at his numbers in that truncated time - .322, 25 HR, 84 RBI. If he had another 25 games and 100 at bats, we are looking at 35 HR and 110 RBI. That places him in borderline elite status, especially hitting in the bandbox known as Great American Park. It is ironic that Votto is Canadian, trying to be the Great American Hero at Great American Park. Will his brain be ok for 2010? One can only hope, but if not, then blame Canada (hey, it worked for Kyle’s mom).
SECOND BASE
Stud
Aaron Hill - Seemingly coming out of nowhere, Hill emerged as a top fantasy 2B. He saw tremendous increases in production across the board, including a power surge that provided 36 HR and 108 RBI. Numbers like this seem Bret Boone-esque. And by that I mean it looks like he may have been juicing. Ok, he probably wasn't given the increased testing performed, but one has to wonder. In an otherwise dreadful year for the Blue Jays, Hill proved to be their best offensive player in a lineup filled with underachievers like Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Hill played in 158 games and remained consistent throughout the year. He solidified himself as a top five 2B for 2010. Honorable mention goes to Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Lopez in a surprisingly deep position. Like Cher from Clueless said pink is the new red (yeah I did just quote Clueless), second base is the new third base.
Stinker
Brandon Phillips - You might be wondering how hitting 20 HR and driving in 98 RBI can be considered stinky, but allow me to explain. Phillips entered 2009 as arguably the best fantasy 2B in baseball with his power and speed hitting cleanup at Great American Park. Expectations were high after a couple highly productive seasons for this late bloomer. But, Phillips took a step back in 2009 with sub-par power numbers and a few injuries to boot. He will most likely rebound and be a valuable steal in the 3rd or 4th round next year, but he definitely did not "roll with the homeys" this year. And yes, I just quoted Clueless again.
Sleeper
Alberto Callaspo - I am just as shocked as you are that a Kansas City Royal is on this list. Callaspo, an Arizona cast-off, had a career year in KC and looks like he can has a bright future ahead of him. Playing in 155 games and getting his first chance as a regular, Callaspo didn't disappoint. He hit .300, had 11 HR, and 73 RBI. He also showed great plate discipline by walking more than he struck out. Given the depth at 2B for 2010, he will likely be off the radar on draft day. So sit back, let the others go, and grab Callaspo in the later rounds and reap the benefits. And by the way, bitch you are getting on the freeway! Ok I am done quoting Clueless.
THIRD BASE
Stud
Ryan Zimmerman - No, he didn't have the best numbers for third basemen in the league. But, when you consider that Zimmerman plays on such a terrible team in a large ballpark, then you can really appreciate how good he is. He bounced back from a down year in 2008 to hit .292, 33 HR and 108 RBI. He was well over .300 earlier in the year, but he remained relatively consistent throughout the season. He stayed healthy, played a great third base, and was one of the best with runners in scoring position. Even if you run the risk of being chided for drafting a National, do it anyway and take the Zimm in the 3rd round of your 2010 draft.
Stinker
David Wright - This should come as a surprise to no one. Wright, a top 10 overall pick in just about every league this year, had a terrible year despite a plus .300 average. His power numbers inexplicably exponentially dropped. I hope my use of double adverbs helped emphasize how bad he was. Wright, a perennial 25-30 HR player for several years, only managed 10 HR and 72 RBI. Being a Mets' fan, I watched every at bat of his. I also had him on my fantasy team. So before anyone tries making excuses, such as the size of Citi Field or the injuries to Reyes, Beltran and Delgado, you should know that had nothing to do with Wright's production. He consistently was at bat with runners on base and failed to drive them in. He abandoned his natural approach to hitting the opposite way and instead struck out at a furious pace. He'll probably bounce back nicely and put this horrendous season behind him, but there is no denying that something was wrong with Wright in 2009.
Sleeper
Pedro Sandoval – I have three words for you: Kung Fu Panda.
SHORTSTOP
Stud
Jason Bartlett - Rather than going with the obvious choices of Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki, I thought I would give some props to Jason Bartlett. Bartlett, a throw-in in the Matt Garza/Delmon Young trade a couple years ago, came out of nowhere to dispel his "all glove, no stick" reputation. He hit .320, scored 90 runs and stole 30 bases. He also missed 30+ games due to injury, so he likely would have eclipsed 100 runs and 80 RBI had he played a full season. Hitting in a potent Tampa Bay lineup should give Bartlett every opportunity to repeat his performance in 2010.
Stinker
Jose Reyes - I admit that my allegiance to Mets makes me bitter towards Reyes for his own handling of his injuries, as well as the Mets' incompetent medical staff. Ok so maybe one needs to have played more than a quarter of a season to qualify for one of these awards, but Reyes is a deserved exception. He was a top 10 pick in just about all fantasy leagues in 2009 which left many people with a gaping hole in their lineups. But he wasn't even playing well before he was injured, and then turned a day-to-day calf injury into potentially an 18-month surgical procedure and absence. Others may have had down years, but no one was more of a disappointment than Reyes.
Sleeper
Alcides Escobar - Yet another quality prospect in the Milwaukee organization, Escobar was given a chance to play at the end of 2009. This was due to his potential, as well as J.J. Hardy's fall from grace. He produced good offensive numbers in his limited time, but all signs point to a budding star hitting in a lineup with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. He will be hyped in the off-season, so others will be aware of him.
CATCHER
Stud
Joe Mauer – It is unreal what this guy has been able to accomplish while wearing the tools of ignorance and even being a capable defensive catcher. Mauer won his 3rd batting title and is the clear-cut favorite to win the A.L. MVP with his huge offensive output. Despite missing the first month of the season recovering from back surgery, Mauer showed no ill effects and had one of the greatest offensive seasons for a catcher in history. We already knew he was a great hitter given his previous batting averages, but this year Mauer developed his power shattering his previous career-high in homeruns. The Twins are smartly giving him plenty of games at DH to rest his body, but it is only a matter of time before Mauer starts learning a new position (can anyone say 3B???). He is clearly the first catcher taken and just may be a 1st round pick in any league format.
Stinker
Russell Martin – Talk about a fall from grace, Martin’s numbers have drastically dropped across the board since his breakout year in 2007. The once heralded catcher with a penchant for playing 140 games and stealing 20 bases has seen his batting average and power output plummet to Charlie O’Brien levels. He is not a top 10 catcher anymore, but he is still young enough where more rest can lead him back to .280, 15 HR and 75 RBI in 2010.
Sleeper
Josh Thole – If you are not a Mets’ fan, then you may asking who the F is that? Thole (pronounced like Thome, but with an L), earned a cup of coffee with the Mets in September and produced quite well. The 23-year old hit for average, drove in runs, and hardly struck out at all. He primarily played 1B in the minor leagues, but he has been groomed as a catcher since 2008 and will likely be the left-handed part of the Mets’ catching platoon in 2010. I also sat next to his family during Spring Training and heard his whole life story, so I am personally pulling for him to succeed. Take him in the last rounds of your draft and you will get as much production from him at catcher as if you grabbed John Baker or Chris Iannetta 5 rounds earlier.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Ryan Braun - Mazel tov to Braun for cementing his status as a legitimate fantasy stud. He may not be the greatest defensive outfielder in the league, but oye vay can he hit. He proved he was an all-around great hitter and not just a power hitter by amassing a .320 average and 200+ hits. Braun is arguably the top OF taken in 2010 and shows no signs of slowing down.
Stinker
B.J. Upton - I guess his renaissance in the 2008 playoffs was all for naught because Upton got off to a HORRENDOUS start to the 2009 season. He was hitting under the infamous Mendoza line well into May and never really got it going outside of one hit burst later in the year. The most alarming aspect of his statistics is not the paltry .241 average or pedestrian power numbers. He struck out 152 times compared to only 57 walks which is indicative of poor plate discipline and a bad approach. He has some serious work to do in the off-season as he is now the second best Upton in baseball. And Alfonso Soriano should send me a thank you note for not throwing him and his $100M contract under the bus for his hideous season.
Sleeper
Adam Jones - He started out en fuego (thanks Dan Patrick) in 2009 but faded down the stretch. That's ok for this young kid who has proven to be a 5 tool player and worth 3 healthy Erik Bedard's. Jones has great power potential and lots of speed in a respectable Baltimore lineup. He hit 2nd in the order for most of the season, but I suspect he will be a primary run producer along with Nick Markakis in 2010. Look for a .290, 25 HR and 90 RBI season from Jones.
Questions? Comments? Rude remarks? Shoot me an email at Michael.Stein@fantasyjudgment.com.
By: Michael A. Stein
October 4, 2009
The 2009 fantasy baseball season is over. Here is my breakdown and analysis of studs, stinkers, and 2010 sleepers at each offensive position.
FIRST BASE
Stud
Albert Pujols – I know I am really going out on a limb to praise King Albert and all of his greatness, but never more has praise been so deserved. Pujols had arguably the greatest season of his career, which is pretty remarkable considering his body of work since he entered the league in 2001. Before the season started, there were questions of who would protect him in the St. Louis lineup. The general consensus was that Pujols would be intentionally walked repeatedly because Ryan Ludwick did not strike fear into the hearts of pitchers. However, it didn’t matter whether Ludwick, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus or Vince Coleman was hitting behind Pujols. He still racked up 47 HR’s and 135 RBI. Oh, and he also hit .327, scored 124 runs, walked 115 times and ONLY struck out 64 times. At 29 years old, he is in his prime. However, I would argue that he has been in his prime since he was 21 years old. Please, please don’t reveal that Pujols has tested positive for any performance-enhancing drugs. He is by far the best player in the game, in both reality and fantasy. No question he is the #1 overall pick in any league next year. And I would go as far to say that he is the greatest pure hitter of all time, regardless of era, time period, drugs, size of stadiums, height of the mound, etc. I challenge anyone to find a player with better, more consistent offensive statistics over a 9 year period. Oh yeah, he also stole 16 bases this year and has become a Gold Glove first-baseman.
Stinker
Lance Berkman – Despite having several injuries and a depleted lineup around him, Berkman had a disappointing 2009 campaign. So did his entire team, which led to the recent firing of Houston’s manager Cecil Cooper. Berkman is a perennial .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI player. He did not achieve any of those statistics, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners who drafted him as a key cog to their respective teams. At his advanced baseball age with a slew of nagging injuries, Berkman can no longer be considered an elite option at 1B. That is not to say he isn’t capable of bouncing back next year in the friendly confines of Enron Field…errr, Minute Maid Park. But, buyer beware in 2010.
Sleeper
Joey Votto - So what is your definition of a sleeper? It is probably different than mine. That is why I am choosing Joey Votto for this category. I know, 2010 will be his 3rd year in the majors. I know, he has had 2 quite successful campaigns in both 2008 and 2009. I know, he was considered a rising star coming into this season. But, he lost significant time due to vertigo and mental issues. As a result, Votto was limited to only 131 games and 469 at bats. Look at his numbers in that truncated time - .322, 25 HR, 84 RBI. If he had another 25 games and 100 at bats, we are looking at 35 HR and 110 RBI. That places him in borderline elite status, especially hitting in the bandbox known as Great American Park. It is ironic that Votto is Canadian, trying to be the Great American Hero at Great American Park. Will his brain be ok for 2010? One can only hope, but if not, then blame Canada (hey, it worked for Kyle’s mom).
SECOND BASE
Stud
Aaron Hill - Seemingly coming out of nowhere, Hill emerged as a top fantasy 2B. He saw tremendous increases in production across the board, including a power surge that provided 36 HR and 108 RBI. Numbers like this seem Bret Boone-esque. And by that I mean it looks like he may have been juicing. Ok, he probably wasn't given the increased testing performed, but one has to wonder. In an otherwise dreadful year for the Blue Jays, Hill proved to be their best offensive player in a lineup filled with underachievers like Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Hill played in 158 games and remained consistent throughout the year. He solidified himself as a top five 2B for 2010. Honorable mention goes to Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Lopez in a surprisingly deep position. Like Cher from Clueless said pink is the new red (yeah I did just quote Clueless), second base is the new third base.
Stinker
Brandon Phillips - You might be wondering how hitting 20 HR and driving in 98 RBI can be considered stinky, but allow me to explain. Phillips entered 2009 as arguably the best fantasy 2B in baseball with his power and speed hitting cleanup at Great American Park. Expectations were high after a couple highly productive seasons for this late bloomer. But, Phillips took a step back in 2009 with sub-par power numbers and a few injuries to boot. He will most likely rebound and be a valuable steal in the 3rd or 4th round next year, but he definitely did not "roll with the homeys" this year. And yes, I just quoted Clueless again.
Sleeper
Alberto Callaspo - I am just as shocked as you are that a Kansas City Royal is on this list. Callaspo, an Arizona cast-off, had a career year in KC and looks like he can has a bright future ahead of him. Playing in 155 games and getting his first chance as a regular, Callaspo didn't disappoint. He hit .300, had 11 HR, and 73 RBI. He also showed great plate discipline by walking more than he struck out. Given the depth at 2B for 2010, he will likely be off the radar on draft day. So sit back, let the others go, and grab Callaspo in the later rounds and reap the benefits. And by the way, bitch you are getting on the freeway! Ok I am done quoting Clueless.
THIRD BASE
Stud
Ryan Zimmerman - No, he didn't have the best numbers for third basemen in the league. But, when you consider that Zimmerman plays on such a terrible team in a large ballpark, then you can really appreciate how good he is. He bounced back from a down year in 2008 to hit .292, 33 HR and 108 RBI. He was well over .300 earlier in the year, but he remained relatively consistent throughout the season. He stayed healthy, played a great third base, and was one of the best with runners in scoring position. Even if you run the risk of being chided for drafting a National, do it anyway and take the Zimm in the 3rd round of your 2010 draft.
Stinker
David Wright - This should come as a surprise to no one. Wright, a top 10 overall pick in just about every league this year, had a terrible year despite a plus .300 average. His power numbers inexplicably exponentially dropped. I hope my use of double adverbs helped emphasize how bad he was. Wright, a perennial 25-30 HR player for several years, only managed 10 HR and 72 RBI. Being a Mets' fan, I watched every at bat of his. I also had him on my fantasy team. So before anyone tries making excuses, such as the size of Citi Field or the injuries to Reyes, Beltran and Delgado, you should know that had nothing to do with Wright's production. He consistently was at bat with runners on base and failed to drive them in. He abandoned his natural approach to hitting the opposite way and instead struck out at a furious pace. He'll probably bounce back nicely and put this horrendous season behind him, but there is no denying that something was wrong with Wright in 2009.
Sleeper
Pedro Sandoval – I have three words for you: Kung Fu Panda.
SHORTSTOP
Stud
Jason Bartlett - Rather than going with the obvious choices of Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki, I thought I would give some props to Jason Bartlett. Bartlett, a throw-in in the Matt Garza/Delmon Young trade a couple years ago, came out of nowhere to dispel his "all glove, no stick" reputation. He hit .320, scored 90 runs and stole 30 bases. He also missed 30+ games due to injury, so he likely would have eclipsed 100 runs and 80 RBI had he played a full season. Hitting in a potent Tampa Bay lineup should give Bartlett every opportunity to repeat his performance in 2010.
Stinker
Jose Reyes - I admit that my allegiance to Mets makes me bitter towards Reyes for his own handling of his injuries, as well as the Mets' incompetent medical staff. Ok so maybe one needs to have played more than a quarter of a season to qualify for one of these awards, but Reyes is a deserved exception. He was a top 10 pick in just about all fantasy leagues in 2009 which left many people with a gaping hole in their lineups. But he wasn't even playing well before he was injured, and then turned a day-to-day calf injury into potentially an 18-month surgical procedure and absence. Others may have had down years, but no one was more of a disappointment than Reyes.
Sleeper
Alcides Escobar - Yet another quality prospect in the Milwaukee organization, Escobar was given a chance to play at the end of 2009. This was due to his potential, as well as J.J. Hardy's fall from grace. He produced good offensive numbers in his limited time, but all signs point to a budding star hitting in a lineup with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. He will be hyped in the off-season, so others will be aware of him.
CATCHER
Stud
Joe Mauer – It is unreal what this guy has been able to accomplish while wearing the tools of ignorance and even being a capable defensive catcher. Mauer won his 3rd batting title and is the clear-cut favorite to win the A.L. MVP with his huge offensive output. Despite missing the first month of the season recovering from back surgery, Mauer showed no ill effects and had one of the greatest offensive seasons for a catcher in history. We already knew he was a great hitter given his previous batting averages, but this year Mauer developed his power shattering his previous career-high in homeruns. The Twins are smartly giving him plenty of games at DH to rest his body, but it is only a matter of time before Mauer starts learning a new position (can anyone say 3B???). He is clearly the first catcher taken and just may be a 1st round pick in any league format.
Stinker
Russell Martin – Talk about a fall from grace, Martin’s numbers have drastically dropped across the board since his breakout year in 2007. The once heralded catcher with a penchant for playing 140 games and stealing 20 bases has seen his batting average and power output plummet to Charlie O’Brien levels. He is not a top 10 catcher anymore, but he is still young enough where more rest can lead him back to .280, 15 HR and 75 RBI in 2010.
Sleeper
Josh Thole – If you are not a Mets’ fan, then you may asking who the F is that? Thole (pronounced like Thome, but with an L), earned a cup of coffee with the Mets in September and produced quite well. The 23-year old hit for average, drove in runs, and hardly struck out at all. He primarily played 1B in the minor leagues, but he has been groomed as a catcher since 2008 and will likely be the left-handed part of the Mets’ catching platoon in 2010. I also sat next to his family during Spring Training and heard his whole life story, so I am personally pulling for him to succeed. Take him in the last rounds of your draft and you will get as much production from him at catcher as if you grabbed John Baker or Chris Iannetta 5 rounds earlier.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Ryan Braun - Mazel tov to Braun for cementing his status as a legitimate fantasy stud. He may not be the greatest defensive outfielder in the league, but oye vay can he hit. He proved he was an all-around great hitter and not just a power hitter by amassing a .320 average and 200+ hits. Braun is arguably the top OF taken in 2010 and shows no signs of slowing down.
Stinker
B.J. Upton - I guess his renaissance in the 2008 playoffs was all for naught because Upton got off to a HORRENDOUS start to the 2009 season. He was hitting under the infamous Mendoza line well into May and never really got it going outside of one hit burst later in the year. The most alarming aspect of his statistics is not the paltry .241 average or pedestrian power numbers. He struck out 152 times compared to only 57 walks which is indicative of poor plate discipline and a bad approach. He has some serious work to do in the off-season as he is now the second best Upton in baseball. And Alfonso Soriano should send me a thank you note for not throwing him and his $100M contract under the bus for his hideous season.
Sleeper
Adam Jones - He started out en fuego (thanks Dan Patrick) in 2009 but faded down the stretch. That's ok for this young kid who has proven to be a 5 tool player and worth 3 healthy Erik Bedard's. Jones has great power potential and lots of speed in a respectable Baltimore lineup. He hit 2nd in the order for most of the season, but I suspect he will be a primary run producer along with Nick Markakis in 2010. Look for a .290, 25 HR and 90 RBI season from Jones.
Questions? Comments? Rude remarks? Shoot me an email at Michael.Stein@fantasyjudgment.com.
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